Once dominated by trusted Japanese manufacturers, most notably Toyota, the African auto market is now seeing a wave of Chinese automakers gaining ground quickly across countries like South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, and Kenya. This marks a structural shift in pricing, consumer expectations, and even policy, and we believe very strongly that it wil redefine the sector for another generation.

Changing Buyer Habits and the Rise of Chinese Brands

Affordable new Chinese models are taking a firm grip on the value end of the market. Middle-class Africans, particularly younger and first-time buyers, are choosing brand-new vehicles with full warranties over the traditional go-to: imported used cars, also known as “tokunbo” in markets like Nigeria.

Brands like Chery, Haval, and BAIC have used a mix of strategic pricing, bold features, and improving design quality to appeal to Africa’s value-conscious market. In South Africa, Chinese brands made up 9% of new vehicle sales by mid-2024. In Egypt, Chery secured a 14.2% market share and placed four models in the top 10 best-sellers.

Many of these cars now come with features like adaptive cruise control, wireless charging, and advanced safety features—as standard. These are amenities typically reserved for higher-end models from traditional manufacturers, now being offered at a lower cost. This is shifting how consumers define “value” in car ownership.

Toyota Still Holds Ground, But Faces Pressure

Toyota continues to perform strongly across Africa, but its dominance is facing new tests. In South Africa, Toyota’s market share dipped from 26.8% in 2023 to 24.9% in 2024, although it rebounded in early 2025. In Nigeria and Kenya, Toyota Hilux and Corolla models still lead in sales, but price increases and currency challenges are putting pressure on affordability.

High import duties and rising costs are also making even used Toyotas harder to access for the middle class. In Kenya, new tax rules in July 2025 are pushing up prices on imported used cars by hundreds of thousands of shillings, prompting many to shift towards new Chinese brands instead.

Local Assembly and Government Policy Are Game Changers

Governments across Africa are promoting local auto assembly with tax incentives and industrial policies. South Africa’s Automotive Masterplan, Kenya’s 2019 policy, and Ghana’s EV infrastructure plan all aim to boost local manufacturing, reduce imports, and encourage technology transfer.

Chinese brands are taking advantage of this. BAIC has a plant in South Africa, and others are eyeing similar moves. Local assembly not only cuts costs and creates jobs but also strengthens the brands’ presence on the continent.

In Nigeria, Mikano Motors, a division of Mikano International, has partnered with several Chinese automotive brands to offer a range of vehicles in Nigeria. These brands include Zhengzhou Nissan (ZNA), Geely, Maxus (SAIC), and most recently, Changan. Mikano Motors is the exclusive distributor for Changan in Nigeria. Mikano’s strategy involves assembling, retailing, and maintaining vehicles from these brands, and they have invested in building a local assembly plant, service centres, and showrooms.

The Electric Vehicle (EV) Factor

Chinese automakers lead globally in EV production and are bringing that advantage to Africa. BYD and GWM are pushing EV adoption, supported by government incentives in countries like Kenya and Ghana. These brands may leapfrog older manufacturers if EV adoption picks up pace across the continent.

EVs represent a strategic opportunity. As urban areas grow and environmental concerns rise, EVs may offer cost-saving benefits in the long term, especially when supported by local charging infrastructure and favorable tax policies.

Our 20-year Outlook: 2025–2045

Expect continued competition in the affordable and SUV segments, with Chinese brands aggressively expanding their networks and Toyota defending its turf with new model launches tailored for Africa.

Consumer preference is shifting steadily away from imported used cars. New tax policies, better financing options, and rising expectations for tech and reliability are all working in favor of new car sales.

Macroeconomic conditions will remain a challenge, with high interest rates, inflation, and forex volatility weighing on consumer confidence. Yet, these same pressures highlight the appeal of Chinese brands, whose affordability fits today’s economic reality.

Toyota may lose some ground in entry-level markets, especially if price gaps widen. However, its brand strength, service network, and reliability still make it a trusted name. A renewed focus on affordable hybrids and EVs could help it stay relevant.

Chinese brands will need to improve after-sales support, expand dealer networks, and build consumer trust for sustained growth. Their rise reflects more than just pricing—it’s about responding to what modern African buyers actually want: a good deal, decent tech, and peace of mind.

Governments have a central role to play. Policy clarity, investment in infrastructure, and prioritization of local industry will shape how the next chapter of Africa’s car market unfolds.